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Red158
622353.7
219445.5
590337.1
Blue78
453124.3
53732.4
802414.9
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1588605010020025015878

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+80Teleop
+88Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave3
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points6
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +56
16Coral scored#13
59Coral points45
2Processor algae#1
10Net algae#1
12Processor points6
40Net points4
52Algae points10
111Total teleop55
Reef
6L4#5
8L3#5
5L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#16
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
0Foul points8
158Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.70.5
58.559.0
Auto9.0
Teleop35.1
End9.6
red by 21.3
537
#28
32.41.7
37.035.3
Auto5.9
Teleop22.8
End3.7
Second
2194
#21
45.50.5
44.444.9
Auto13.2
Teleop31.9
End0.5
red by 21.3
4531
#14
24.31.7
27.225.5
Auto3.1
Teleop16.6
End4.5
Third
37.10.5
37.037.5
Auto6.5
Teleop24.3
End6.2
red by 22.1
8024
#30
14.91.7
20.418.7
Auto4.2
Teleop7.9
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsMissed