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Red154
870133.3
791550.5
130653.3
Blue125
638136.7
282655.7
53732.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14712750100200154125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+7Teleop
+17Endgame
+29Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave9
5Coral scored#4
24Coral points21
30Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +7
19Coral scored#14
68Coral points51
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
12Processor points18
16Net points20
28Algae points38
96Total teleop89
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#4
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
12Foul points0
154Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1306
#11
53.30.3
52.753.0
Auto10.4
Teleop38.9
End4.1
blue by 2.4
2826
#16
55.70.4
52.953.3
Auto12.9
Teleop36.3
End6.5
Second
7915
#18
50.50.3
48.348.6
Auto7.7
Teleop35.2
End7.6
red by 13.9
6381
#31
36.70.4
34.134.5
Auto6.3
Teleop24.3
End6.1
Third
8701
#17
33.30.3
36.636.9
Auto6.4
Teleop22.8
End4.1
red by 0.9
537
#28
32.40.4
32.032.4
Auto5.9
Teleop22.8
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned67%Barge oddsMissed