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Red111
345233.8
400428.3
8539.5
Blue127
353847.4
485533.5
295929.4
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103126050150200111127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
Teleop+28
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +15
6Leave0
2Coral scored#6
9Coral points30
15Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +13
18Coral scored#18
66Coral points65
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
80Total teleop93
Reef
9L4#10
4L3#6
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
111Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85
#27
39.51.0
37.838.8
Auto7.5
Teleop26.2
End5.7
blue by 7.9
3538
#23
47.41.0
48.249.2
Auto14.1
Teleop32.8
End0.5
Second
3452
#25
33.81.0
31.532.5
Auto3.8
Teleop29.0
End1.0
red by 0.3
4855
#24
33.51.0
35.536.5
Auto8.3
Teleop23.3
End1.9
Third
4004
#14
28.31.0
26.527.5
Auto5.1
Teleop16.6
End6.6
blue by 1.1
2959
#29
29.41.0
28.129.1
Auto5.8
Teleop23.9
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed