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Red103
477437.1
914723.3
587613.7
Blue76
699642.8
997412.6
998626.9
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57116010015020010376

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+13
+9Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +19
10Coral scored#11
37Coral points38
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#4
6Processor points12
4Net points16
10Algae points28
47Total teleop66
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#4
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#18
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
18Foul points0
103Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4774
#10
37.11.5
31.232.6
Auto4.4
Teleop26.1
End6.6
blue by 5.7
6996
#13
42.80.5
42.543.0
Auto8.5
Teleop27.7
End6.7
Second
23.31.5
17.318.7
Auto5.7
Teleop12.9
End4.7
blue by 3.5
26.90.9
15.916.7
Auto4.7
Teleop21.3
End0.8
Third
5876
#21
13.71.5
14.516.0
Auto1.9
Teleop8.3
End3.6
red by 1.2
9974
#25
12.60.9
10.010.8
Auto1.6
Teleop9.7
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsMissed