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Red101
998626.9
999419.1
649730.6
Blue74
472915.9
564817.6
958710.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9942015020010174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+15Teleop
+19Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave3
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points6
18Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +6
14Coral scored#10
51Coral points37
0Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
0Processor points12
16Net points12
16Algae points24
67Total teleop61
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#3
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#16
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
12Foul points4
101Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.61.0
25.026.0
Auto6.2
Teleop20.0
End4.4
red by 13.0
5648
#20
17.61.1
15.616.7
Auto1.5
Teleop15.1
End1.0
Second
26.91.7
19.521.2
Auto4.7
Teleop21.3
End0.8
red by 11.0
4729
#15
15.91.1
16.117.2
Auto3.4
Teleop12.2
End0.3
Third
9994
#14
19.11.7
18.119.8
Auto3.8
Teleop8.0
End7.3
red by 8.7
9587
#26
10.41.1
12.613.7
Auto2.5
Teleop6.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed