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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99914060801201401609270

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+14
+8Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points7
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +17
7Coral scored#9
24Coral points33
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
38Total teleop55
Reef
3L4#4
4L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#15
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
14Foul points0
92Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6940
#16
47.41.1
55.954.8
Auto13.8
Teleop27.4
End6.2
red by 1.7
6766
#10
45.70.6
32.331.7
Auto7.6
Teleop37.1
End0.9
Second
8810
#12
43.41.4
23.522.1
Auto5.4
Teleop31.1
End7.0
red by 13.7
9635
#19
29.70.6
36.135.5
Auto5.4
Teleop22.2
End2.1
Third
9991
#11
13.91.8
14.412.7
Auto1.8
Teleop6.4
End5.5
blue by 5.5
6494
#24
19.40.7
10.49.7
Auto4.0
Teleop14.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned6%Barge oddsMissed