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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1658505010015020025030016298

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+50Teleop
+70Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
5Coral scored#4
27Coral points20
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +43
24Coral scored#14
88Coral points51
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
108Total teleop65
Reef
8L4#7
10L3#6
8L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#21
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
0Foul points6
162Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.50.8
58.158.9
Auto14.5
Teleop42.9
End5.0
red by 3.3
59.10.1
60.760.9
Auto14.6
Teleop39.4
End5.1
Second
56.80.8
45.246.0
Auto11.6
Teleop38.5
End6.7
red by 39.5
5849
#18
17.30.1
12.012.2
Auto4.3
Teleop10.9
End2.1
Third
42.80.8
41.342.1
Auto8.7
Teleop28.0
End6.1
red by 29.8
13.00.2
11.411.6
Auto4.4
Teleop7.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed