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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1671805010015020025012155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+46Teleop
+68Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave0
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points10
23Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +33
11Coral scored#9
40Coral points31
1Processor algae#1
7Net algae#1
6Processor points6
28Net points4
34Algae points10
74Total teleop41
Reef
5L4#5
5L3#2
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#13
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
0Foul points2
121Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.81.2
48.947.8
Auto11.6
Teleop38.5
End6.7
red by 37.4
6494
#24
19.41.2
11.412.6
Auto4.0
Teleop14.6
End0.8
Second
6940
#16
47.41.2
55.754.5
Auto13.8
Teleop27.4
End6.2
red by 32.8
6433
#20
14.61.2
6.57.6
Auto4.4
Teleop7.9
End2.4
Third
9635
#19
29.71.2
31.230.0
Auto5.4
Teleop22.2
End2.1
red by 16.7
13.01.2
14.515.7
Auto4.4
Teleop7.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned9%Barge oddsMissed