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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87155050100200250143125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+33
+6Teleop
+18Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +33
6Leave6
3Coral scored#10
15Coral points48
21Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +39
22Coral scored#13
78Coral points47
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
106Total teleop67
Reef
11L4#10
4L3#6
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
0Foul points0
143Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.53.5
53.456.9
Auto10.4
Teleop37.7
End7.4
blue by 9.1
64.70.6
60.259.6
Auto21.1
Teleop42.3
End1.4
Second
54.65.8
29.435.2
Auto6.0
Teleop40.1
End8.4
blue by 8.3
63.00.6
60.359.7
Auto18.4
Teleop41.1
End3.5
Third
7002
#26
12.13.5
8.011.5
Auto2.3
Teleop9.0
End0.9
blue by 10.2
9994
#23
22.31.0
13.612.6
Auto3.8
Teleop12.2
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned54%Barge oddsMissed