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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15614550100200250300173187

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
Teleop+8
Endgame+10
Fouls+14
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
11Coral scored#7
55Coral points37
58Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +29
25Coral scored#27
91Coral points96
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#8
12Processor points12
8Net points32
20Algae points44
111Total teleop140
Reef
13L4#11
12L3#10
6L2#9
5L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points4
173Total score187

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.71.8
60.962.8
Auto21.1
Teleop42.3
End1.4
red by 7.9
56.83.2
54.657.8
Auto11.6
Teleop38.5
End6.7
Second
56.11.8
52.454.2
Auto19.3
Teleop31.8
End5.1
red by 10.5
6766
#10
45.73.2
41.644.8
Auto7.6
Teleop37.1
End0.9
Third
9992
#17
36.12.6
32.234.9
Auto8.2
Teleop26.6
End1.1
blue by 5.1
8011
#13
41.23.2
38.641.8
Auto6.8
Teleop29.2
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
49%Coral oddsEarned32%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed84%Barge oddsMissed