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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions192176120140160200220240159160

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+13Teleop
+1Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
9Coral scored#6
44Coral points28
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +6
23Coral scored#18
83Coral points65
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#4
12Processor points24
16Net points16
28Algae points40
111Total teleop105
Reef
8L4#6
12L3#7
7L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points2
159Total score160

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.51.2
63.262.0
Auto14.5
Teleop42.9
End5.0
blue by 0.5
63.00.2
58.658.4
Auto18.4
Teleop41.1
End3.5
Second
59.31.2
53.552.3
Auto12.5
Teleop41.5
End5.4
red by 3.8
55.50.2
53.953.7
Auto10.4
Teleop37.7
End7.4
Third
59.11.2
59.858.7
Auto14.6
Teleop39.4
End5.1
red by 11.7
6940
#16
47.40.2
48.248.0
Auto13.8
Teleop27.4
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
84%Coral oddsEarned22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed67%Barge oddsEarned