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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157138050100200250300161148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+15Teleop
+15Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
7Coral scored#5
35Coral points24
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +1
21Coral scored#18
75Coral points64
1Processor algae#4
5Net algae#3
6Processor points24
20Net points12
26Algae points36
101Total teleop100
Reef
10L4#7
7L3#7
7L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#30
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points2
161Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.71.3
62.864.1
Auto21.1
Teleop42.3
End1.4
red by 2.2
62.51.4
62.063.5
Auto14.5
Teleop42.9
End5.0
Second
59.11.3
58.760.0
Auto14.6
Teleop39.4
End5.1
red by 3.6
55.51.4
53.755.2
Auto10.4
Teleop37.7
End7.4
Third
8015
#21
21.31.3
19.621.0
Auto6.2
Teleop12.7
End2.4
red by 6.7
6433
#20
14.61.4
8.610.0
Auto4.4
Teleop7.9
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
49%Coral oddsMissed30%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsEarned