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Red153
400134.4
368343.7
503915.5
Blue136
260931.2
151130.0
495123.3
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1131058090100110120130140150153136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.70.3
43.343.6
Auto9.1
Teleop22.9
End11.7
red by 12.4
31.20.0
31.331.3
Auto10.3
Teleop15.8
End5.1
Second
34.40.3
34.034.3
Auto10.1
Teleop18.9
End5.4
red by 4.4
30.00.0
30.030.1
Auto9.1
Teleop17.3
End3.6
Third
5039
#38
15.50.3
15.215.5
Auto4.9
Teleop7.2
End3.4
blue by 7.7
4951
#20
23.30.0
23.323.3
Auto6.1
Teleop14.9
End2.3