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Red185
151156.1
263852.4
595173.0
Blue186
259051.3
98783.6
414632.3
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions199171100150250300185186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+15
+5Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +18
6Leave9
4Coral scored#7
20Coral points35
26Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +3
26Coral scored#24
95Coral points86
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
12Processor points18
16Net points16
28Algae points34
123Total teleop120
Reef
13L4#9
6L3#9
4L2#6
7L1 · trough#7
36Game pieces#38
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points6
185Total score186

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5951
#17
73.00.2
71.671.8
Auto19.2
Teleop44.0
End9.8
blue by 10.5
987
#14
83.61.2
79.981.1
Auto22.8
Teleop52.6
End8.2
Second
1511
#44
56.10.2
58.358.6
Auto7.2
Teleop37.3
End11.7
red by 4.8
2590
#67
51.31.2
50.151.3
Auto8.0
Teleop35.3
End8.0
Third
2638
#68
52.40.2
51.351.6
Auto9.0
Teleop35.9
End7.5
red by 20.1
4146
#59
32.31.2
31.632.9
Auto5.5
Teleop24.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsMissed94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed73%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsEarned