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Red120
312855.1
546849.4
904420.5
Blue105
399041.0
728723.8
551647.0
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13611580100160180200120105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+17Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
5Coral scored#6
24Coral points31
33Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +21
18Coral scored#9
63Coral points32
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
77Total teleop56
Reef
6L4#5
9L3#5
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +15
6Foul points6
120Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.10.2
52.852.6
Auto8.4
Teleop36.4
End10.2
red by 8.0
47.00.3
46.746.4
Auto15.7
Teleop31.3
End0.0
Second
49.40.2
47.146.9
Auto10.0
Teleop31.4
End7.9
red by 8.4
41.00.4
40.740.3
Auto9.2
Teleop26.2
End5.6
Third
9044
#15
20.50.2
20.720.5
Auto5.7
Teleop14.0
End0.9
blue by 3.3
7287
#17
23.80.3
24.223.8
Auto5.3
Teleop15.0
End3.5