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Red181
546875.8
804837.9
473874.5
Blue172
879342.7
803361.0
97173.8
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions208196140160180220240181172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+5Teleop
+5Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
3Leave6
11Coral scored#5
55Coral points27
58Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +20
20Coral scored#21
73Coral points75
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#6
6Processor points12
12Net points24
18Algae points36
91Total teleop111
Reef
8L4#12
10L3#6
7L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#34
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
6Foul points2
181Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5468
#25
75.81.4
77.075.7
Auto17.6
Teleop47.9
End10.3
red by 2.0
971
#32
73.80.6
75.074.4
Auto15.1
Teleop50.6
End8.1
Second
4738
#16
74.51.4
72.671.2
Auto19.9
Teleop44.3
End10.3
red by 13.6
8033
#37
61.00.6
66.165.5
Auto16.2
Teleop36.8
End8.0
Third
8048
#38
37.91.4
45.744.4
Auto6.5
Teleop29.5
End1.8
blue by 4.8
8793
#28
42.70.6
37.536.9
Auto10.6
Teleop25.8
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
69%Coral oddsMissed44%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsMissed93%Barge oddsEarned