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Red206
546878.2
138865.9
645960.7
Blue155
180765.4
699641.8
242951.4
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions200145100250206155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+31Teleop
+51Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave0
6Coral scored#8
31Coral points39
40Total auto39
TeleoperatedRed +30
25Coral scored#22
90Coral points80
3Processor algae#3
8Net algae#3
18Processor points18
32Net points12
50Algae points30
140Total teleop110
Reef
14L4#7
6L3#11
5L2#7
6L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#36
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +51
0Foul points0
206Total score155

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5468
#13
78.20.9
79.780.6
Auto19.4
Teleop47.5
End11.2
red by 12.7
1807
#35
65.40.3
59.159.5
Auto15.5
Teleop45.3
End4.6
Second
1388
#26
65.90.9
54.855.6
Auto12.8
Teleop44.8
End8.3
red by 14.5
2429
#64
51.40.3
51.852.2
Auto9.0
Teleop34.7
End7.6
Third
6459
#22
60.70.9
52.353.2
Auto14.2
Teleop44.4
End2.1
red by 18.9
6996
#18
41.80.4
34.034.4
Auto9.2
Teleop23.3
End9.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
79%Coral oddsEarned24%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned90%Barge oddsMissed