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Red237
246861.0
283272.4
177892.9
Blue257
18870.6
742673.1
546878.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions246242150200300350237257

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+10Teleop
Endgame+20
Fouls+20
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave6
8Coral scored#10
41Coral points52
44Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +24
33Coral scored#28
119Coral points101
5Processor algae#4
5Net algae#5
30Processor points24
20Net points20
50Algae points44
169Total teleop145
Reef
11L4#19
15L3#7
7L2#6
8L1 · trough#6
51Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +30
6Cage & park36
6Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +20
18Foul points18
237Total score257

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1778
#12
92.90.2
93.393.1
Auto18.7
Teleop71.4
End2.8
red by 14.7
5468
#13
78.20.4
78.478.7
Auto19.4
Teleop47.5
End11.2
Second
72.40.2
72.672.4
Auto19.7
Teleop45.1
End7.7
blue by 0.7
73.10.4
73.373.7
Auto14.5
Teleop50.0
End8.6
Third
2468
#38
61.00.2
61.561.3
Auto8.0
Teleop44.7
End8.3
blue by 9.6
188
#14
70.60.4
70.871.2
Auto20.8
Teleop42.3
End7.6