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Red174
317361.8
686836.4
69558.5
Blue114
158518.2
304448.5
151133.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1336750100150200174114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+50Teleop
+60Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave3
8Coral scored#4
40Coral points20
40Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +33
20Coral scored#18
72Coral points65
2Processor algae#1
9Net algae#4
12Processor points6
36Net points16
48Algae points22
120Total teleop87
Reef
11L4#7
9L3#7
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
39Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +60
0Foul points0
174Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.85.5
43.749.2
Auto16.4
Teleop37.0
End8.4
red by 13.4
3044
#11
48.54.3
28.232.4
Auto11.0
Teleop34.8
End2.7
Second
695
#10
58.55.5
45.050.5
Auto13.3
Teleop42.1
End3.1
red by 25.1
1511
#37
33.44.3
24.929.2
Auto3.9
Teleop24.2
End5.3
Third
6868
#20
36.45.5
24.630.1
Auto5.3
Teleop29.4
End1.8
red by 18.2
1585
#41
18.24.3
13.317.6
Auto5.8
Teleop11.5
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
67%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed