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Red170
19149.0
151133.4
159143.5
Blue157
300337.6
2045.5
178747.1
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131134050100150200250300350170157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+35Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave3
7Coral scored#4
34Coral points20
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +21
30Coral scored#18
109Coral points66
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#6
12Processor points18
8Net points24
20Algae points42
129Total teleop108
Reef
16L4#11
13L3#4
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
170Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
191
#6
49.01.4
48.149.5
Auto14.6
Teleop29.2
End5.1
red by 1.9
1787
#28
47.10.9
46.147.1
Auto10.4
Teleop29.1
End7.6
Second
1591
#32
43.51.4
42.644.0
Auto10.6
Teleop31.3
End1.5
blue by 2.0
20
#9
45.50.9
44.645.5
Auto5.2
Teleop32.5
End7.7
Third
1511
#37
33.41.4
32.633.9
Auto3.9
Teleop24.2
End5.3
blue by 4.2
3003
#14
37.60.9
36.737.6
Auto4.5
Teleop25.3
End7.7