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Red160
260344.6
151147.1
239953.2
Blue187
69573.8
178763.5
155931.2
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions152174100200250160187

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+25
Endgame+35
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave3
7Coral scored#8
33Coral points41
33Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +14
23Coral scored#21
81Coral points77
1Processor algae#4
4Net algae#4
6Processor points24
16Net points16
22Algae points40
103Total teleop117
Reef
10L4#12
8L3#9
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +27
8Foul points0
160Total score187

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2399
#11
53.20.2
53.153.2
Auto9.9
Teleop35.4
End7.9
blue by 20.5
695
#15
73.80.5
71.772.3
Auto19.2
Teleop47.1
End7.5
Second
47.10.2
46.947.1
Auto6.3
Teleop31.6
End9.2
blue by 16.5
63.50.5
61.562.0
Auto13.7
Teleop38.6
End11.2
Third
2603
#16
44.60.2
44.544.6
Auto8.6
Teleop28.1
End7.9
red by 13.4
1559
#19
31.20.5
29.229.8
Auto7.6
Teleop16.8
End6.8