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Red197
499137.3
222862.2
574050.3
Blue189
239953.2
151147.1
260344.6
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171148100120140160180200220240197189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+20Teleop
+8Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave0
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points30
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +6
17Coral scored#21
61Coral points75
6Processor algae#4
8Net algae#6
36Processor points24
32Net points24
68Algae points48
129Total teleop123
Reef
9L4#8
9L3#9
4L2#7
3L1 · trough#3
39Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +12
24Cage & park36
24Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points0
197Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.21.0
60.861.8
Auto13.7
Teleop39.5
End9.0
red by 9.0
2399
#11
53.21.1
49.850.9
Auto9.9
Teleop35.4
End7.9
Second
50.31.0
48.949.9
Auto15.6
Teleop25.5
End9.1
red by 3.2
47.11.1
43.644.7
Auto6.3
Teleop31.6
End9.2
Third
4991
#12
37.31.0
35.936.9
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End1.2
blue by 7.3
2603
#16
44.61.1
41.242.3
Auto8.6
Teleop28.1
End7.9