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Red162
546870.6
956724.9
95760.1
Blue128
154051.6
142550.7
99730.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions176142100120160200220240162128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+24Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave9
9Coral scored#6
47Coral points28
47Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +14
20Coral scored#11
71Coral points41
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#6
12Processor points12
8Net points24
20Algae points36
91Total teleop77
Reef
9L4#7
7L3#4
8L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points0
162Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.60.2
70.370.5
Auto18.0
Teleop43.6
End9.0
red by 19.0
51.60.1
51.651.5
Auto11.8
Teleop33.3
End6.5
Second
957
#1
60.10.2
59.859.9
Auto17.6
Teleop34.7
End7.8
red by 9.4
50.70.1
50.750.6
Auto16.0
Teleop27.7
End7.0
Third
9567
#13
24.90.2
24.624.8
Auto6.0
Teleop14.1
End4.8
blue by 5.5
997
#28
30.40.1
30.430.3
Auto5.9
Teleop24.6
End-0.2