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Red178
451260.7
413141.5
241258.8
Blue245
154071.2
902370.5
546879.7
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11620650100150250300178245

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+65
Endgame+73
Fouls+67
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave0
7Coral scored#10
37Coral points51
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +51
18Coral scored#31
65Coral points110
5Processor algae#4
6Net algae#9
30Processor points24
24Net points36
54Algae points60
119Total teleop170
Reef
6L4#13
11L3#13
4L2#8
4L1 · trough#7
36Game pieces#54
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +67
6Foul points0
178Total score245

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4512
#13
60.73.0
38.441.4
Auto17.7
Teleop40.4
End2.5
blue by 19.0
5468
#19
79.72.9
71.974.8
Auto19.3
Teleop49.3
End11.0
Second
2412
#24
58.83.0
40.443.4
Auto13.3
Teleop40.2
End5.3
blue by 12.4
71.22.9
51.654.5
Auto15.3
Teleop47.7
End8.2
Third
4131
#41
41.53.0
30.333.3
Auto7.3
Teleop27.7
End6.5
blue by 29.0
70.52.9
58.461.3
Auto14.0
Teleop53.1
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
31%Coral oddsEarned80%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned