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Red186
546859.2
159519.3
131853.4
Blue113
451347.8
853218.2
214744.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14712450100200186113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+43Teleop
+41Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
8Coral scored#3
38Coral points16
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +15
19Coral scored#15
68Coral points53
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
96Total teleop81
Reef
6L4#9
8L3#4
8L2#2
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +73
32Foul points0
186Total score113

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.20.5
57.758.2
Auto15.3
Teleop35.0
End8.9
red by 11.3
47.80.0
47.947.9
Auto5.1
Teleop31.9
End10.8
Second
53.40.5
51.952.5
Auto12.2
Teleop36.3
End5.0
red by 8.7
2147
#19
44.70.0
44.844.8
Auto5.9
Teleop33.6
End5.2
Third
1595
#33
19.30.5
17.818.3
Auto5.6
Teleop12.2
End1.5
red by 1.1
8532
#17
18.20.0
18.318.3
Auto4.2
Teleop7.1
End6.8